EazyinWay - EIA Trims Forecast for 2025 US Crude Oil Output EIA Trims Forecast for 2025 US Crude Oil Output

EIA Trims Forecast for 2025 US Crude Oil Output

Published: July 9, 2025
U.S. domestic crude oil production is anticipated to grow by 160,000 barrels per day this year, reaching 13.37 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. This figure is a downward revision of 50,000 barrels per day from previous estimates, and production is expected to remain flat in 2026. The decline in drilling rigs has been notable, with numbers nearing four-year lows, even as oil prices have stabilized following significant drops due to global demand concerns.

The count of drilled but uncompleted wells, a key indicator of future supply, has also decreased to the lowest level recorded since 2013, suggesting that even with a sudden increase in oil prices, producers might not be able to ramp up production quickly. While recent geopolitical tensions briefly boosted prices, the benefit was short-lived as those pressures subsided.

Experts project that significant global inventory increases will exert ongoing downward pressure on oil prices in the future, with expectations of Brent crude averaging $58 per barrel by 2026, compared to its current trading level of around $70.

From a transportation perspective, the slowdown in U.S. crude production might lead to constrained supply for domestic refining capabilities, potentially affecting fuel availability and prices in the long term. The challenges faced by producers in ramping up production could also impact the overall stability of U.S. energy resources, raising concerns about energy security and the potential for price volatility in the transportation sector. With the global market influenced heavily by geopolitical events and inventory levels, the U.S. might need to enhance its strategic reserves and diversify energy sources to mitigate future disruptions.
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