The seemingly never-ending war in Iran has put a chokehold on gas and foreign product pricing, and President Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs has made getting spare parts an absolute bear. Ownership is set to become even more costly as experts say the world is running out of base oil — the critical oil you need to keep that premium-spec engine running.
Base oil, if unfamiliar, is an essential component for making multiple lubricating applications, including engine oil. Stocks are going to run dry in a month if nothing comes in.. You can push back an oil change, but it's just going to be more expensive and there will be less availability.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already exacerbated the near stagnant supply of these important base oils. So, hypothetically, if a country bombed an area and took a critical refinery offline, it would likely kick off the perfect storm leading to one massive shortage.
Earlier in the week, the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) sent a two-page document to customers outlining the causes of the 2026 Global Base Oil Supply Crisis. The literature focused on Group III base oil product, which is the middle-of-the road of refined base oils.
Group III crude is processed by three refineries in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain. Qatar's refinery is currently offline due to damage it sustained in March (take a guess as to why), and the other two are unable to export as the ports those locales would utilize are in the compromised part of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ILMA's CEO Holly Alfano warned that nearly three-quarters of US Group III imports under stress, while also eliminating the industry's ability to substitute with Group II base oils.
Hurricane season is on the horizon, which could prove detrimental. The ongoing crisis highlights the need for manufacturers and owners to prioritize planning and contingency strategies to mitigate potential disruptions in the supply chain.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already exacerbated the near stagnant supply of base oils, making it essential for manufacturers to diversify their production and sourcing strategies.
