Electric trucks are gaining traction as fleets reassess their powertrain options, with NACFE's latest Run on Less initiative providing valuable insights into the total cost of ownership. The North American Council for Freight Efficiency's study has found that electric truck powertrains are trending towards market leadership by 2025.
The complexity of fleet operations makes it challenging to deliver definitive answers, but NACFE's report aims to provide a framework for decision-making in an increasingly complex landscape. By analyzing real-world data from 13 fleets and 14 trucks, the organization has identified key factors that influence total cost of ownership.
Fleets must abandon the idea of a universal cost comparison across powertrains, as operational differences vary dramatically by duty cycle, geography, utilization, and energy costs. This means that any single benchmark is misleading at best.
Instead of presenting rigid conclusions, NACFE positions its report as a guide, including scenario modeling, sensitivity analyses, and practical 'pro tips' to help fleets build their own cost frameworks. This approach acknowledges the uncertainty and complexity of fleet operations.
Despite the challenges, NACFE's modeling points to clear directional trends in the industry. Diesel remains the lowest-cost option across all analyzed duty cycles, but battery-electric trucks are projected to become the most cost-effective solution by 2035.
The shift towards electric trucks is driven largely by expected declines in battery and powertrain costs, as well as improvements in vehicle design and manufacturing scale. However, early-production designs still face inefficiencies in battery sourcing, system integration, and component costs that will need to be addressed.
One of the most important takeaways for fleets is the outsized role of utilization in determining total cost of ownership outcomes. Battery-electric trucks perform best when driven more miles, allowing fleets to spread higher upfront costs over greater usage.
The study highlights the potential benefits of electric trucks in high-utilization applications such as drayage and return-to-base operations. As the industry continues to evolve, transparency and collaboration will be key to accelerating learning and adoption.
Ultimately, NACFE's report provides a valuable resource for fleets navigating the transition to cleaner powertrains, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making and scenario planning in achieving sustainable fleet management.
As the industry continues to evolve, transparency and collaboration will be key to accelerating learning and adoption.
